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The secret war on oil prices escalates! The global energy landscape is being reshuffled

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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: The secret war on oil prices has escalated! The global energy pattern is being reshuffled." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

On Tuesday (October 28) during the Asia-Europe period, the US crude oil December futures contract rebounded slightly after bottoming out. It once fell to -2.2% during the session, and then rebounded slightly. It is currently trading at 60.59, with the decline narrowing to -1.17%.

The average price of gasoline nationwide in the United States fell below $3 per gallon for the first time in years, largely due to OPEC+ releasing more crude oil into the market, while weak global demand also played a key role.

But the good times don’t last long. After the United States imposes a new round of restrictions on Russian oil, its domestic gasoline prices may soon surge significantly. Oil prices are now back above $3.

On the same day, Amin Nasser, CEO of Saudi state-owned oil giant Saudi Aramco, said that global demand for crude oil had remained strong even before the West imposed restrictions on major Russian oil www.xm-forex.companies Rosneft and Lukoil.

Nasser said that oil demand growth next year will be 1.1 million to 1.4 million barrels per day. In the www.xm-forex.coming decades, oil and natural gas will remain an important part of the global energy structure, and the "callback" of various countries' policies also reflects a new understanding of the importance of hydrocarbon energy.

U.S. oil restrictions on Russia may cause domestic gasoline prices to soar

Last Monday, the average price of gasoline in the United States was US$2.969 per gallon, 16 cents lower than the same period last year. GasBuddy, a well-known energy data analysis platform, predicts that oil prices may fall further in the www.xm-forex.coming weeks.

Data from the American Automobile Association (AAA) shows that in the United StatesAfter launching a new round of restrictions on Russian oil, the average retail price of gasoline rose to $3.07 per gallon last Sunday.

At 12:00 noon Eastern Time last Friday, the price of Brent crude oil futures for December delivery was at US$66.42 per barrel, up nearly 10% from last Monday's intraday low of US$60.5 per barrel; during the same period, the price of the December US crude oil futures contract rose from the low of US$57.00 per barrel last Monday to US$61.94 per barrel.

The United States and the United Kingdom have successively imposed restrictions on Russian energy www.xm-forex.companies, helping to increase oil prices

The U.S. government announced a new round of restrictions on Russian energy giants Rosneft, Lukoil and their subsidiaries on Wednesday. Just a few days ago, the United Kingdom had imposed similar restrictions on the above-mentioned www.xm-forex.companies.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said: “Given President Putin’s refusal to end this senseless war, the Treasury Department is imposing restrictions on two major Russian oil www.xm-forex.companies that fund the Kremlin’s war machine.

The Treasury Department is ready to take further action if necessary to support We support President Trump’s push to end yet another war. We call on our allies to join us and strictly adhere to these restrictions.”

This development marks a radical departure from the Trump administration’s previous approach to acting as a neutral mediator between Ukraine and Russia.

The Trump administration adjusted its logic, and oil prices rose in response

Trump has repeatedly threatened to take tough measures against Russia, but has never taken action before.

At present, GasBuddy director of petroleum analysis Patrick DeHaan has issued an early warning to consumers, reminding them to prepare for rising gasoline prices in the next few days.

De Haan said: "In the next few days, the impact of restrictions on gasoline prices may begin to appear, and it may take five days to be fully transmitted to terminal retail prices." He also added that whether the upward trend in oil prices can be reversed depends on whether Russia or the United States adjusts their stance.

He further pointed out: "Affected by these new developments, Russia will face pressure to return to the negotiating table; and if President Trump observes that oil prices have risen to worrying levels, he may also take countermeasures, so I think this increase in oil prices will not last long."

Institutional view: Short-term outlook for oil prices Facing adjustment pressure but long-term deposit turning around

www.xm-forex.commodity analysts at Standard Chartered finally joined the bearish camp and lowered their oil price forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by US$15 per barrel. The direct cause of this reduction was the significant changes in the oil price forward curve in the past year.

Standard Chartered Bank raised the average price of Brent crude oil in 2025 from US$61 per barrel to US$68.50 per barrel; however, analysts lowered the 2026 oil price target from US$78 per barrel to US$78 per barrelUS$63.50, lowering the 2027 oil price forecast from US$83 per barrel to US$67 per barrel. They pointed out that since the beginning of 2026, the crude oil futures curve has entered a contango state.

Futures premium (contango) refers to the futures price being higher than the spot price, which usually reflects the market's expectation of future price increases, or the reality of higher current storage costs; while futures backwardation (backwardation) refers to the futures price being lower than the spot price. This situation often means that immediate demand is strong, or the market expects future prices to decline.

This forecast adjustment by Standard Chartered Bank shows that oil prices will be weak in the short term and will show a stable and slow upward trend in the long term.

These www.xm-forex.commodity experts currently predict that due to trade issues, tariff uncertainty and concerns about oversupply, market sentiment is generally negative and oil prices will remain weak in the short term.

However, they maintained their previous prediction that low oil prices will begin to restrain the growth of U.S. shale oil production; if OPEC+ continues to release crude oil to the market, this will highlight the tight crude oil supply pattern and the geographical concentration of idle production capacity, and this factor should support oil prices in the medium term.

Standard Chartered Bank’s prediction that U.S. producers are about to reduce production is supported by the fact that the cost of U.S. shale oil production continues to rise. The reason behind this is the depletion of high-quality resources and the need for the industry to carry out drilling operations in areas and formations that are more speculative and have more www.xm-forex.complex geological conditions.

Analysts at energy consulting firm Enverus predict that by the mid-2030s, the marginal cost of oil extraction in U.S. shale regions may rise from about $70 per barrel to $95 per barrel.

This rising cost trend is gradually taking shape because the entire industry is shifting from core resources that are easy to mine to resources with less exploration maturity, thereby pushing up the cost of mining.

That is to say, Standard Chartered Bank is bearish on oil prices due to the short-term oversupply of crude oil. However, in the medium and long term, due to the contango shape of crude oil, the premium of forward contracts and the liquidation of the shale oil industry, although they have lowered the forward target price, the target price for 2027 is still rising for 2026, which represents its short-term bearish attitude towards oil prices and its long-term non-pessimistic attitude.

Technical analysis:

After the U.S. crude oil December futures contract quickly rebounded to the upper edge of the box, it began to pull back. The nearest support can be referred to 59.40, which is the 50% percentile of the negative line on October 10. At the same time, the next support is 58.48, the key price for this wave of oil price breakthrough.

The pressure level is 61.27, which is the upper edge of the box itself.

But this sharp rebound may pave the way for the subsequent upward performance of oil prices. After all, in the face of the liquidation of the shale oil industry and layoffs in the oil industry, it will not be easy to increase production capacity in the future.

The above content is about "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: The secret war on oil prices escalates! The global energy pattern is being reshuffled"All the content is carefully www.xm-forex.compiled and edited by the XM foreign exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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