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US dollar's resilience, gold changes, just waiting for Powell's starting gun

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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Group]: US dollar resilience, gold changes, just waiting for Powell's starting gun". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

On Wednesday (October 29), the foreign exchange and www.xm-forex.commodity markets showed signs of cautious recovery on the eve of the Federal Reserve meeting. The U.S. dollar index slightly recovered its losses and stood at the 98.85 mark, with an intraday increase of 0.12%, reflecting traders' initial optimism about the progress of trade negotiations. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hit 3.996%, rising 0.50% on the day, and the overall yield curve flattened, highlighting investors' sensitivity to policy shifts. During the same period, spot gold unexpectedly rose to 4,017.73 US dollars per ounce, an increase of 1.65%, fluctuating in the same direction as the US dollar, which seemed quite abnormal in an environment dominated by the bond market. Overall, the rise in U.S. bond yields is quietly affecting the resilience of the U.S. dollar, while gold is taking advantage of the fluctuations in the bond market to amplify the demand for safe havens. The entire market atmosphere is shrouded in the countdown to the Federal Reserve's decision. Although the trading volume is lower than normal, the game between key prices has begun.

Recovery of U.S. bond yields: Bond market anchor of U.S. dollar resilience

The 0.50% intraday increase in the 10-year U.S. bond yield is not an isolated one, but the bond market’s immediate response to multiple fundamental signals. As the Federal Reserve meeting approaches, the market has priced in today's 25 basis point interest rate cut expectation and hopes for another round of easing in December, which should have lowered the yield curve. However, in reality, traders are more concerned about the hints about the pace of quantitative tightening (QT) in the policy statement. Analysts from well-known institutions pointed out that if the Fed announces an early end to QT - earlier than the market expects by the end of the year - it may trigger a knee-jerk fall in yields in the short term. However, Powell's cautious statement at the press conference may limit the strength of forward guidance, causing the bond market rebound to be quickly digested. Currently, yields hover around 4%Below the logical barrier, it only moved upward by 1 basis point, and the entire curve fluctuated by only 2 basis points, which reflects the wait-and-see situation under low trading volume.

From the perspective of transmission from the bond market to the US dollar, this development directly strengthens the structural support of the US dollar. The U.S. dollar index rose slightly to 98.8460 during the day, getting rid of recent selling pressure, partly due to signals of easing of trade negotiations - Trump expressed his expectations for a "great deal" in his speech in South Korea. Although such tariff remarks are still uncertain, they have ignited the market's imagination of risk mitigation. The head of the Tokyo branch pointedly pointed out that the sustained selling pressure on the US dollar was ushering in a institutional rebound. After trading behavior overreacted to trade noise, the stabilization of bond market yields became a key anchor. Although the Fed's interest rate cut path is clear - a total of 75 basis points throughout the year - the "foggy" environment with missing data has made Powell's statements on future easing more conservative, which in turn has increased the short-term appeal of the US dollar. The expectation that the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan will keep interest rates unchanged tomorrow further amplified the strength of the US dollar relative to the euro. The euro fell to 1.1628 against the US dollar, ending five consecutive days of gains.

The linkage between the bond market and the US dollar is not linear, but is amplified by yield sensitivity. Currently, the mid-range U.S. bond yields are firmly at 3.997. If the 4% mark falls, it may trigger the U.S. dollar index to test the upper track of 99.0379; conversely, if the yield falls back to the lower track of 3.958, it will test the stability of the U.S. dollar's support at 98.5844. This bond market-led transmission mechanism ensures that the dollar remains resilient before and after the Fed event, rather than relying solely on the trade narrative.

Gold bond market spillover: unexpected resonance of the hedging effect

Spot gold's intraday increase of 1.65% pushed it to US$4,017.73 per ounce. This rise with the US dollar is actually due to the hedging spillover effect transmitted by the bond market. In traditional logic, a stronger U.S. dollar tends to suppress gold, but today's resonant trend highlights the leading role of uncertainty in the bond market: although rising yields are good for the U.S. dollar, it also amplifies policy risk perceptions and drives funds to tilt toward gold. Although the Fed's interest rate cut was expected, Powell's emphasis on data blind spots - although last week's CPI was softer than expected, it could not hide the statistical gaps caused by the delay of the government shutdown - has heightened market doubts about the easing path. This uncertainty, through fluctuations in bond market yields, directly translates into safe-haven demand for gold.

It is worth analyzing that the "anomaly" of gold and the US dollar rising together today is essentially a mirror image of the bullish sentiment in the bond market. The 10-year yield rose by 0.50%. Although it did not break through the 4.035 upper track, it has disturbed the allocation logic of global funds. The tactical view of well-known institutions is that the bond market is flat in the short term and fluctuates around the 4% range, which will indirectly stimulate gold's bullish momentum - a subtle rise in yields, reminding traders that the Fed's "risk management" stance may delay the end of QT, thereby raising inflation concerns. The price of gold benefited from this and stood above the middle track of 4015.54, far away from the lower track of 3893.43, showing the intervention of safe-haven buying. trade negotiationsAlthough the initial positive news has alleviated geopolitical risks, the potential concerns caused by tariff remarks still give gold additional support as a "buffer" for the bond market rather than as a simple anti-dollar tool.

From a fundamental perspective, the continued stalemate between Russia and Ukraine further strengthens gold’s bond market transmission channel. In a flattening yield curve environment, gold not only captures immediate fluctuations in Fed events, but also amplifies bond market feedback from global risk aversion. Tomorrow's prudent stance by the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan may contrast with the Federal Reserve's loose tone, exacerbating this spillover effect and pushing gold to maintain its upward bias amid narrow fluctuations in the bond market.

Technical interweaving: the imprint of the bond market on indicator signals

Turning to the technical level, the 240-minute charts of U.S. Treasuries, the U.S. dollar and gold jointly outline the short-term pattern dominated by the bond market. The U.S. dollar index is currently at 98.8460, with the middle track of 98.8108 of the Bollinger Bands providing immediate support and the upper track of 99.0379 as a rebound target. The MACD indicator DIFF-0.0135 is higher than DEA-0.0223. Although the columnar line is still negative, there are early signs of convergence below the zero axis, suggesting that after the bond market yields stabilize, the dollar's momentum may shift from weak to neutral. Although the intraday increase of 0.12% is moderate, it has digested the initial optimism in trade negotiations. The key lies in whether it can hold on to the lower track of 98.5844 after the Fed's press conference and avoid sliding to recent lows.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is at 3.996. The middle track of 3.997 in the Bollinger Bands is almost coincident with the current price. The resistance level of the upper track of 4.035 is testing the intentions of the bulls. The weak negative difference between MACDDIFF-0.002 and DEA-0.001 shows that the indicator line is close to the edge of the golden cross. Under low trading volume, it indicates that the yield may fluctuate slightly within the range of 3.958-4.035. Historical review shows that such a narrow range pattern on the eve of the FOMC often amplifies fluctuations after the press conference - if Powell downplays future interest rate cuts, yields may exceed 4%, strengthening the positive transmission of the bond market to the US dollar.

The 240-minute chart of gold shows the imprint of the bond market: the price of 4017.73 has broken through the middle track of 4015.54 and is approaching the upper track of 4137.62. MACDDIFF-37.27 has narrowed www.xm-forex.compared with DEA-44.78, and the negative value of the columnar line has gradually slowed down, suggesting the accumulation of risk-off momentum. The intraday increase of 1.65%, which deviates from the same rise of the US dollar, stems from the bond market signal of the expansion of the Bollinger Band upper track - the rebound in yields amplifies volatility, and gold uses this to rebound from the trough of the lower track of 3893.43. Technically, the simultaneous convergence of the three indicators has strengthened the role of the bond market as a "hub": the U.S. dollar remains on track, yields stabilize at the center, and gold reaches the upper edge, forming a short-term resonance.

Based on fundamentals and technology, the mystery of today's simultaneous rise in gold and US dollars can be traced to the "double-edged" effect of bond market yields: the upward trend supports the resilience of the US dollar, but stimulates gold's risk aversion through policy doubts. We need to be wary of the risk of differentiation of indicators after the press conference.

Short-term outlook: Bond market-anchored volatility window

Looking ahead 2-3On the same day, U.S. bond yields are expected to see-saw at the 4% mark, with a narrow range of 3.95%-4.02% becoming the main theme. The Fed's QT hints and Powell's press conference will determine whether the bond market breaks through the psychological line. The U.S. dollar index may stabilize with yields and test above 99.00, but subsequent noise from trade negotiations may limit gains to near the mid-range. Spot gold continues to overflow from the bond market, and the risk aversion effect may push it closer to the 4100 mark, especially if the yield falls as a trigger.

The above content is all about "[XM Group]: US dollar resilience, gold changes, just waiting for Powell's starting gun". It is carefully www.xm-forex.compiled and edited by the XM foreign exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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