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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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2020年 Cyprus HR Awards 颁赠
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market analysis
Why did USD/JPY suddenly fall to around 152?
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Official Website]: Why did the USD/JPY suddenly fall to around 152?". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On Tuesday (October 28), the U.S. dollar fell rapidly against the yen, with the lowest approaching the 151.75 line. It is currently trading around 152 during the European session, with an intraday decline of about 0.5%. The triggering points for this round of exchange rate correction www.xm-forex.come from two ends: one is the periodic strengthening of the yen itself, and the other is the weakening of the US dollar in terms of macro expectations.
Fundamental analysis: Dual pressures are pushing down the U.S. dollar against the yen
First of all, buying of the yen does not appear out of thin air, but is driven by signals of improvement in external relations and internal policy expectations.
On the one hand, Japan emphasized that it is strengthening economic cooperation with the United States and announced an overseas investment plan of US$550 billion, covering energy, power, infrastructure and other real industries. The market's reading is: this is not a simple external layout, but a long-term www.xm-forex.commitment to bundle foreign policy with industrial policy. The subtext is "stable relations and stable industrial chain migration." This narrative will alleviate concerns about Japan's export prospects and weaken the old logic of "must rely on an extremely weak yen to maintain export www.xm-forex.competitiveness", thereby supporting the yen at the margin.
At the same time, the US President highly affirmed the relationship with the new Japanese Prime Minister in his public statement, emphasizing that "the US-Japan friendship is very strong." This type of high-profile, public political endorsement is often taken by the foreign exchange market as a signal of a decline in the "geo-risk discount": once the geo-risk discount drops, the role of safe-haven currencies (traditionally including the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc) will change slightly, and funds can flow directly to the Japanese yen itself with greater peace of mind, rather than just hedging on the U.S. dollar. This re-pricing was very direct in today's trading: the US dollar against the yen was significantly depressed to around the 152 line.
The second levelThe pressure www.xm-forex.comes from the dollar itself. The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday. The main market expectation is that the interest rate cutting cycle will continue, and the Federal Reserve will continue to move in the direction of easing in the next few meetings. This "looser" expectation has been factored into the price of the US dollar in advance - the US dollar index is currently around 98.70, down about 0.15% from the week's high and close to the recent low. A weaker U.S. dollar index would normally push the U.S. dollar lower against the yen in the absence of sudden risk-off factors.
Also note: domestic policy noise in the United States is on the rise. The U.S. president publicly called out the Fed chairman as "incompetent" and hinted that he might be replaced within a few months. He also said that senior financial officials were unwilling to join the Fed. The most direct consequence of this kind of wording at the foreign exchange level is not who is right or wrong, but that policy predictability is weakened. Policy predictability decreases → Uncertainty about the path of U.S. interest rates increases → The U.S. dollar’s “safety premium” is slashed. This also weakens the upward momentum of USD/JPY.
In contrast, the focus on the yen has turned to the Bank of Japan. The Bank of Japan will announce its latest resolution on Thursday. The main market line still believes that there is a high probability that this meeting will hold steady and the benchmark interest rate will remain at 0.5%. But what really affects market pricing is not "no action" itself, but the following sentence: traders began to bet that there was about a 38% probability that the Bank of Japan would raise interest rates by 25 basis points in December. This means that foreign exchange markets are beginning to price the yen in a future of "perhaps a gradual return to normalization". That is why, in a pairing framework where the Fed is seen as continuing to ease and the Bank of Japan is seen as likely to tighten, USD/JPY falling back from a high of 153.25 to around 152 is not a surprise, but a normal reaction after the carry trade is slightly trimmed.
Technical aspect:
From the hourly level K-line chart, the USD/JPY experienced a surge and fall in the latter part of October: the upper line of 153.252 is the recent high point, and then fell all the way along an obvious downward trend line. The trend line connected multiple negative low points in the high-return stage, which has the typical characteristics of a downward trend line.
During the downward process, the exchange rate once broke through the 152.600 line, and quickly fell to the stage low of 151.757. Subsequently, the U.S. dollar against the yen did not continue to fall in a crash-like manner, but formed a rectangular sideways consolidation area near 151.75-152.10, which is a typical consolidation market/box structure. This box illustrates: The bears have www.xm-forex.completed the first wave of "heavy volume decline" in the very short term, but the bulls can still hold their position near the 152 mark for the time being, and both sides are waiting for the next round of catalysis (Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve).
The indicator level also confirms the characteristics of "sideways trading after a sharp drop". The current DIFF of the MACD indicator (26, 12, 9) is -0.249, the DEA is -0.208, and the MACD histogram is -0.084. The whole is still below the zero axis, showing that the momentum is still biased towards the short side, but the negative value of the histogram is narrowing, indicating that the marginal strength of the short kinetic energy is positiveSlowing down rather than continuing to amplify. In other words, the power of short selling is still there, but it is no longer as explosive as it was originally.
The relative strength index RSI (14) is currently around 38.074, still in a low range. The 38 area is not extremely oversold, but it clearly tells us that the current dollar against the yen is still running in a weak range, and the short-term rebound is more like a technical rebound rather than a trend reversal. Only when the RSI regains its position above the central axis and the price returns above 152.600 and www.xm-forex.completes the backtest, will this rebound be more likely to be recognized by the market as an "effective repair" rather than a "dead cat jump".
From the perspective of price structure, the 152.600 line is still the primary resistance level above. It is not only the previous horizontal support, but also the intensive transaction area in the downward channel in October. It is a typical "support to resistance". Downward, you need to focus on the low of 151.757, which currently plays the role of short-term support/defense level. If this support line is broken down and confirmed, USD/JPY will face a new round of decline, and the market will begin to discuss the possibility of a range of 151.50 or even lower.
To put it simply, the technical picture is not a reversal at the moment, but a respite after the decline: the downward trend line is still pressing on the price, MACD is still negative, RSI is still weak, and the box range shows that the market is digesting short profit taking and waiting for signals from the central bank. The technical conclusion is that the main trend of USD/JPY is still downward. Unless the price can regain 152.600 and break through the downward trend line, the rebound will only be a correction, not a new upward trend.
Market sentiment observation: Switching mentality from "interest spread logic" to "central bank game"
The current market sentiment is switching from "unilateral carry trade" to the "central bank game + policy noise" model. In the past, most of the rising logic of the US dollar against the yen was: the Federal Reserve maintained high interest rates, the Bank of Japan was extremely loose, and the interest rate spread was huge → the carry trade (carry trade) tended to be long the US dollar against the yen in the long term. This logic still exists, but it is being diluted by two things.
First, the market has begun to seriously price the probability of the Bank of Japan’s subsequent interest rate hike: the implied probability of a 25 basis point increase in December has been pulled to about 38%. This means an increase in potential costs for carry trades, and the attraction of carry is no longer as simple as "closing your eyes and holding it for a long time and sitting on the interest rate difference"; this psychological change itself is an emotional turning point.
Second, the path taken by the Federal Reserve is being transformed by political noise. Once the policy path is considered to be affected by domestic political games, rather than purely driven by inflation and employment data, the Fed's authority, independence and forward guidance will be discounted by the market. Once the Fed is discounted, the U.S. dollar as the anchor of global liquidity will also be discounted, and the "safety premium" of the U.S. dollar will decline, making the market more willing to settle long U.S. dollar orders at high levels.
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