Trusted by over 15 Million Traders
The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason
CATEGORIES
News
- 【XM Group】--USD/CHF Forex Signal: Drifts Higher
- 【XM Forex】--USD/INR Analysis: New Highs and a New Normal as Global Forex Reacts
- 【XM Market Analysis】--AUD/USD Forecast: Australian Dollar Continues to Look for
- 【XM Decision Analysis】--Silver Forecast: Silver Continues to Find Buyers on Dips
- 【XM Group】--Pairs in Focus - Gold, EUR/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, NASDAQ 100, WTI Cr
market news
The US dollar index fell again, and the bearish channel failed to break through!
Wonderful Introduction:
If the sea loses the rolling waves, it will lose its majesty; if the desert loses the dancing of flying sand, it will lose its magnificence; if life loses its real journey, it will lose its meaning.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Group]: The US index fell again, and the bearish channel failed to break through!". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Asian market market
On Monday, traders were preparing for the Fed's interest rate cut this week and looking for clues to further interest rate cuts this year. The US dollar index continued to fall during the day, with the US dollar priced at 97.20.
The United States plans to include more steel and aluminum derivatives in the scope of tariffs.
Trump called for www.xm-forex.companies not to force release quarterly reports, but should be changed to once every six months, and the Nasdaq CEO expressed support.
Trump announced that the US military has launched a second strike on Venezuelan drug dealers in international waters.
Michigan official: There is no evidence that Fed Director Cook violated the main residence declaration regulations.
Former Fed official Brad: "very interested" to become the Fed chairman when eligible.
Indian Trade Official: India and the United States will hold trade negotiations in New Delhi on Tuesday.
Summary of institutional views
Analyst Fawad Razaqzada: Confirm the upward trend at a higher high, and buying at a low level is still a good idea.
Although France's political situation continues to turmoil, the euro still stabilizes its position, and investors seem to be not worried about the risk of the epidemic spreading to the entire Europe. The strong recent forecast of the euro is largely driven by weakening the dollar rather than resilience in the euro zone, but its net effect is obvious: the euro is in a healthy upward trend against the dollar, and I will not be able to do the euro unless there is any unexpected shock.It was surprisingly soon to 1.20.
It is worth mentioning that news that Fitch lowered its credit rating in France last Friday night did not cause market panic. This move has long been expected and has been reflected in the pricing of French bonds. The bigger question is whether the French Prime Minister can unite the divided National Assembly and promote much-needed fiscal reforms. This is still a challenge in France, not an issue in the entire euro zone, so I think it will turn into a broader crisis.
Technically, the euro has been steadily rising, and it is of great significance to break through 1.17 last week. The trend continues to form higher highs and higher lows and trades firmly above the key moving averages and trend lines. At present, going against the trend is not very meaningful, which means traders should focus on finding opportunities to buy on dips. The above has opened the door toward a July high of 1.1830, which will be the near-term target last week. In addition, psychological barriers 1.19 and 1.20 are still worth paying attention to.
In the downward direction, the support level is first at the previous breakthrough level 1.17, and the further buffering level is 1.1560-1.1620. Importantly, the euro remains above the uptrend line, which keeps the trend upside.
Facefield Bank: The European Central Bank's resolution last week is in line with expectations, and the next interest rate adjustment may appear in...
Last week's ECB's interest rate resolution basically meets market expectations. Lagarde emphasized at a press conference that although the past anti-inflation process has ended, they will not preset policy paths and will continue to adhere to the successive meeting decision-making model that relies on data in the future. This unanimously passed the interest rate resolution and the decision to adjust the risk assessment of economic activities to "more balanced", continuing the stance that has been slightly hawkish than market expectations since July.
In this update of economic forecasts, only the GDP growth forecast for this year has been raised to 1.2%, but the core inflation forecast for 2027 has dropped to 1.8%, slightly lower than our expectations. And the euro exchange rate assumption of 1.16 from 2026 to 2027 is significantly lower. We believe that the key nodes in discussing interest rate adjustments may be at the end of the year or early next year. If weak economic growth is superimposed on the appreciation of the euro, overall inflation may drop to 1.5% and trigger the risk of expectations being out of control.
In response to the situation in France, Lagarde said that although he did not discuss the TPI tool, he was paying close attention to the market and there was no out-of-order fluctuation at present. She stressed that although the TPI framework is clear, it will not restrict decision-making flexibility, and the current problems are still mainly limited to France.
Bank of America looks forward to Fed interest rate resolution: If Powell emphasizes the labor market, may he send out a dovish signal of continuous interest rate cuts?
Policy Statement: The Federal Reserve is expected to decide to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. In the policy statement, there may be partial adjustments in the description of the status quo. The most important thing is to lower the description of the labor market conditions. The description of inflation may not change, i.e. the statement may also indicate that the upward risk of inflation has weakened (because some FOMC www.xm-forex.committee members have expressed this view recently), this will constituteAn adult dove accident. But in our eyes, this assessment is not recognized.
Economic Forecast: The forward-looking guidance provided in the economic forecast updated in the June meeting is amazing. In the economic forecast at this meeting, we expect to raise our annual GDP growth rate by 0.1%, but the forward forecast may remain unchanged. Given that the current unemployment rate is moving towards the Fed's forecast trajectory of 4.5% in the fourth quarter, we don't think it needs to adjust its path. Inflation forecasts for 2025 are unlikely to change, especially the PCE readings pointed to by CPI and PPI data in August are lower than expected. The focus of the market should be on the changes in the dot matrix graph, mainly to observe whether the median in 2025 shows a decline of 50 or 75 basis points. Against the backdrop of basically unchanged macro forecasts, we believe that the median value in 2025 will continue to show a 50 basis point rate cut, although the overall lattice distribution moves down. This judgment is between two possible reasons. Meanwhile, the median value in 2026 should show another 50 basis points cut (25 basis points in June), and the dot plot will also show another 25 basis points cut in 2027. The long-term median value may remain at 3.0%.
Press Conference: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will continue the tone of his speech at the Jackson Hall meeting in the subsequent press conference, but most importantly, the pace of interest rate cuts/October decision-making. Powell is likely to give a standard response: All meetings have possibilities, but no decision was made in September. However, its statement of labor market and inflation characteristics will hint at whether it is inclined to cut interest rates at every meeting. If Powell focuses on slowing employment growth and infers that the job market may have shrunk for several consecutive months based on preliminary benchmark revisions, it will be dovish. In addition, he may cite a jump in the number of initial unemployment claims for the week ended September 6, as well as the upward risk of the unemployment rate (although the increase is currently small).
Citi looks forward to the Federal Reserve's interest rate resolution: Powell may provide clear guidelines for subsequent interest rate cuts?
The highly anticipated Federal Reserve September meeting has finally arrived. The market has fully priced FOMC and will decide to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and it is very likely that three voting www.xm-forex.committees will support the cut interest rate by 50 basis points (Federal Governors Waller, Bowman, Milan). In addition, data from non-farm reports in July and August showed that there were obvious downside risks in the US labor market, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell may confirm guidance on further interest rate cuts in the future. The current interest rate market shows that after this rate cut, the Federal Reserve still has room for two interest rate cuts this year. Therefore, the updated dot map will become the focus of the market, which is likely to show that interest rate cuts will be two to three times this year, and the median interest rate forecast for 2026 may also be revised down.
The above content is all about "[XM Group]: The US index fell again, and the bearish channel breaks through failed!". It was carefully www.xm-forex.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
Due to the author's limited ability and time tightness, some content in the articleIt is still necessary to continue to discuss and in-depth research. Therefore, in the future, the author will conduct extended research and discussion on the following issues:
Disclaimers: XM Group only provides execution services and access permissions for online trading platforms, and allows individuals to view and/or use the website or the content provided on the website, but has no intention of making any changes or extensions, nor will it change or extend its services and access permissions. All access and usage permissions will be subject to the following terms and conditions: (i) Terms and conditions; (ii) Risk warning; And (iii) a complete disclaimer. Please note that all information provided on the website is for general informational purposes only. In addition, the content of all XM online trading platforms does not constitute, and cannot be used for any unauthorized financial market trading invitations and/or invitations. Financial market transactions pose significant risks to your investment capital.
All materials published on online trading platforms are only intended for educational/informational purposes and do not include or should be considered for financial, investment tax, or trading related consulting and advice, or transaction price records, or any financial product or non invitation related trading offers or invitations.
All content provided by XM and third-party suppliers on this website, including opinions, news, research, analysis, prices, other information, and third-party website links, remains unchanged and is provided as general market commentary rather than investment advice. All materials published on online trading platforms are only for educational/informational purposes and do not include or should be considered as applicable to financial, investment tax, or trading related advice and recommendations, or transaction price records, or any financial product or non invitation related financial offers or invitations. Please ensure that you have read and fully understood the information on XM's non independent investment research tips and risk warnings. For more details, please click here