Trusted by over 15 Million Traders
The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason
CATEGORIES
News
- 【XM Forex】--Gold Forecast: Holds Firm Near 50-Day EMA
- 【XM Forex】--USD/MXN Forecast: Stabilizes Amid Uncertainty
- 【XM Decision Analysis】--GBP/USD Forecast: British Pound Continues to Consolidate
- 【XM Group】--GBP/CHF Forecast: GBP Weakens vs CHF
- 【XM Decision Analysis】--BTC/USD Forecast: Surges After Sharp Drop
market news
The annual household income gap may reach 60 billion, and signs of recession in the United States are becoming increasingly obvious?
Wonderful introduction:
Optimism is the line of egrets that are straight up to the blue sky, optimism is the thousands of white sails beside the sunken boat, optimism is the lush grass that blows with the wind on the head of the parrot island, optimism is the falling red spots that turn into spring mud to protect the flowers.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Platform]: The annual household income gap may be 60 billion, and signs of recession in the United States are becoming more and more obvious?". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On Friday (September 12), the US dollar index rebounded 0.18% to around 97.70 during the European session. Affected by the sharp increase in US technology stock performance narrative, the US stock indexes hit record highs and boosted the US dollar in the short term. Data from the US Department of Labor on Thursday night showed that the increase in the August consumer price index (CPI) roughly met market expectations, clearing the way for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week, and at least cut interest rates again before the end of the year. Inflation concerns have temporarily been eliminated, but the number of initial jobless claims last week has grown at the fastest pace in the past four years, bringing market attention back to U.S. employment.
We might as well rethink the non-farm employment correction data released by the U.S. Department of Labor this Tuesday. The total non-farm employment in the first 12 months of March 2025 was revised down by 911,000 www.xm-forex.compared with the previous estimate.
This benchmark correction strengthens the judgment that "the labor market is cooling faster". This correction shows that the number of non-agricultural employment has been overestimated by nearly 1 million jobs (the largest correction since the global financial crisis), and essentially erases the significant employment growth in 2024, which also means that household income is weaker than previously reported levels.
The problems in the U.S. employment market may be more serious than expected
Suppose that ordinary workers earn $36 an hour and work 35 hours a week (not including non-payment benefits such as medical care and retirement payments), then the overestimation of employment data will lead to an estimated $60 billion annual gap in household income. This scale accounts for about 0.5% of the total household income; if social welfare and retirement expenses paid by employers are taken into account, the scale of this gap will be further expanded.
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will www.xm-forex.combineUpdated data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to correct GDP estimates. Since BLS employment data will be directly included in personal income accounting, which will in turn affect national income statistics, any downgrade and correction of employment data will inevitably have an impact on GDP.
Theoretically, national income should match the economic demand side represented by GDP. It can be seen that if the income side data is down-revised, unless the household savings data are synchronized, GDP will also face a down-revised correction of at least 0.5%.
A collection of data statistics methods for the Bureau of Labor Statistics
It should be noted that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) non-farm employment data is derived from a monthly survey, which mainly tracks monthly changes in employment, working hours and income dimensions in all non-farm industries, including private enterprises and government departments.
The survey sample covers about 122,000 www.xm-forex.companies and more than 666,000 independent workplaces, basically covering all core areas of the US economy. Employers must report the number of employees in the salary accounting period that includes the 12th of each month, and submit salary and working hours data.
There will then release preliminary estimates, revise them within the next two months, and conduct more www.xm-forex.comprehensive benchmark revisions based on administrative records for unemployment insurance declarations in January each year.
The new situation doubles the difficulty of data statistics of the Bureau of Labor.
The revised data released in September this time is a preliminary revised version, and the final revision results will be announced in January next year.
Since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, the integrity of the current employment statistics survey (CES, the official name of the non-agricultural employment survey) has been under pressure.
The response rate of the survey—the historical average of about 60%—has plummeted in the early months of the epidemic. A large number of enterprises (especially service industry enterprises) have either closed down or switched to remote work, or are unable to contact us due to other factors, which directly leads to the hindering of data collection work.
This situation has weakened the representativeness of the survey sample and has never recovered to the level of response rate before the epidemic. Data from industries that have been hit hard are underestimated, and the probability of small businesses withdrawing from the survey sample group has also increased significantly. The decline in sample coverage injects more disturbing factors into the monthly estimate data, which in turn triggers an abnormally significant revision, and the employment data for 2024 falls into this situation.
Core data, the market needs to interpret such data carefully
In addition, in many cases, methodological difficulties and classification misjudgments (such as counting off employees into on-the-job personnel), further distort the core data.
Although the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has adjusted its statistical process to deal with such anomalies, the reliability of initial non-farm employment data has dropped significantly in the post-epidemic era.
At the same time, this Wednesday, the U.S. Department of Labor's internal monitoring agency said it had launched an investigation into how the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) collected employment and inflation data.
This means that the market needs to interpret such data carefully and www.xm-forex.combine it with other economic indicators (such as the employment survey of the American Supply Management Association ISM and the World Federation of Large Enterprises ConferenceBoard) - these surveys actually show that employment situations have deteriorated significantly.
Technical Analysis
The long-term weakening of the US dollar index also implies that the fundamentals of the United States are changing.
At present, the US dollar index is barely above the 5-day line and the lower edge of the box, and is suppressed by the 10, 20 and 30-day moving averages. These moving averages are in a downward direction and have a trend of continued divergence downward, which all suppress the rebound of the US dollar index. 97.40 is an important support level, which is the position that the US dollar index will quickly pull back after breaking the bottom on the 9.9 day.
KDJ remains below 50, and MACD is both below the zero axis, suggesting that the rebound of the US dollar index may end at any time and needs to be retested below support.
The decline of the US dollar index on Thursday also failed to touch the point. The most recent pressure level is the September 10 high and the integer mark around 98.00. However, due to the weak development of the US labor market and the Fed's easing cycle that is about to begin, the US dollar index may continue to decline.
The above content is all about "[XM Forex Platform]: The annual household income gap may be 60 billion, and the signs of recession in the United States are becoming more and more obvious?", which was carefully www.xm-forex.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your transactions! Thanks for the support!
After doing something, there will always be experience and lessons. In order to facilitate future work, we must analyze, study, summarize and concentrate the experience and lessons of previous work, and raise it to the theoretical level to understand it.
Disclaimers: XM Group only provides execution services and access permissions for online trading platforms, and allows individuals to view and/or use the website or the content provided on the website, but has no intention of making any changes or extensions, nor will it change or extend its services and access permissions. All access and usage permissions will be subject to the following terms and conditions: (i) Terms and conditions; (ii) Risk warning; And (iii) a complete disclaimer. Please note that all information provided on the website is for general informational purposes only. In addition, the content of all XM online trading platforms does not constitute, and cannot be used for any unauthorized financial market trading invitations and/or invitations. Financial market transactions pose significant risks to your investment capital.
All materials published on online trading platforms are only intended for educational/informational purposes and do not include or should be considered for financial, investment tax, or trading related consulting and advice, or transaction price records, or any financial product or non invitation related trading offers or invitations.
All content provided by XM and third-party suppliers on this website, including opinions, news, research, analysis, prices, other information, and third-party website links, remains unchanged and is provided as general market commentary rather than investment advice. All materials published on online trading platforms are only for educational/informational purposes and do not include or should be considered as applicable to financial, investment tax, or trading related advice and recommendations, or transaction price records, or any financial product or non invitation related financial offers or invitations. Please ensure that you have read and fully understood the information on XM's non independent investment research tips and risk warnings. For more details, please click here