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8.1 Analysis of the latest trends of gold and crude oil market and the layout of exclusive operation suggestions today
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: 8.1 Analysis of the latest market trends of gold and crude oil and the layout of exclusive operation suggestions today". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
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Analysis of the latest gold market trend:
Analysis of gold news: On Thursday (July 31), spot gold fluctuated and fell during the trading session of the US market. Currently trading around $3,292.76 per ounce. Investors will also pay attention to the international trade situation and the United States' June PCE data, and will also release non-farm employment report on Friday. The gold market encountered "Black Wednesday", with spot gold falling by more than 1.5% in a single day, hitting a low of $3,268.02 per ounce, a new low since June 30. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, Powell's hawkish speech suppressed expectations of interest rate cuts, and the United States released economic data that exceeded expectations, together constituted a "perfect storm" for the decline in gold prices. Meanwhile, the US dollar index rose strongly by about 1%, reaching its highest point since May 29 at 99.99, further exacerbating the pressure on gold. The strong performance of the US dollar index has become a direct factor overwhelming gold. On July 30, the US dollar index rose more than 1%, reaching a high of 99.98, setting a new high since May 29, with the slump in JulyThe increase is more than 3%. The rise in the US dollar is closely related to the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain high interest rates, but is also driven by the exceeding expectations of US economic data. The dollar is well supported by strong data and Fed statements. The strengthening of the dollar directly weakens the attractiveness of gold denominated in USD, especially for investors holding other currencies, where the purchase cost of gold has risen significantly.
Gold technical analysis: Yesterday we laid short positions below 3333-35, and it fell perfectly. Many people are still questioning our short positions. Today, all verified that the majority of people were bullish yesterday, but the market was very weak, and they hovered between 3320-3333 all day. This shows that the momentum of upward is extremely insufficient. After the ADP data was released in the evening, the gold price fell as expected. The interest rate resolution in the early morning was once again in line with expectations and did not cut interest rates. At the same time, Powell's speech was hawkish. The gold price fell below the support level at one point, with a low of 3268. Yesterday, we predicted that it would fall by 100 US dollars, which has been achieved by most of the time. Needless to say, the fundamentals are not needed. If the tariff policy is implemented, there will be no room for speculation. To avoid danger Sentiment cooled down, and gold prices fell. From the market, the weekly line was dark and the daily line began to be negative. Although the hourly line has rebounded, the rebound strength will not be very strong. The first pressure is around 3290-92, followed by 3300. The support below focuses on the monthly support around 3250-45. The idea is to rebound and short. The data this week is not over yet. The focus is on today's monthly line ending and Friday's big non-agricultural data. If the monthly line closes long the upper shadow line, then the decline of gold prices in August will be at least 300 US dollars. I think the adjustment of gold prices will fall back to the price of 2832/ounce at the beginning of this year, and then a wide range of fluctuations will be carried out at a high level. The range is expected to run between 2832-3350. Overall, in terms of gold's short-term operation ideas today, He Bosheng recommends that rebound high altitudes should be the main focus, and the retracement should be the low long as the auxiliary. The short-term focus should be on the 3315-3325 line of resistance above, and the short-term focus should be on the 3275-3265 line of support below.
Analysis of the latest trend of crude oil:
Crude oil news analysis: International oil prices continued to rise on Thursday, recording a fourth consecutive day of highs. The market is generally worried that global supply tensions will intensify. The September contract of Brent crude oil rose 0.4% to $73.51 per barrel, WTI crude oil rose 0.5% to $70.37 per barrel, while the more active Brent October contract rose 0.4% to $72.76 per barrel. Recently, the market focus has been on the statement of US President Trump. Trump asked Russia to make "substantial progress" in the situation in Ukraine within 10-12 days, otherwise it would impose 100% secondary tariffs on its trading partners and significantly advance the previous 50-day deadline. The current rise in international oil prices is more driven by trade concerns and expectations of potential supply tightening, especially the high tariffs and sanctions promoted by the United States are reshaping the international crude oil trade pattern. Although the inventory data shows that supply increases, gasoline inventory declines and demand resilience isOil prices provide support. If the U.S. policy is further escalated in the future, the probability of oil prices breaking through $74 and standing firm is higher, but if the situation in Russia and Ukraine eases or negotiations make progress, market sentiment may reverse rapidly.
Crude oil technical analysis: From the daily chart level, the medium-term trend fluctuates upward test around 78, the K-line closes to a large physical negative line, oil prices repeatedly cross the moving average system, and the medium-term objective trend direction fluctuates. But the subjective direction alternates according to the primary and secondary directions, and the direction goes downward. However, from the perspective of kinetic energy, the MACD indicator is parallel to the fast and slow line near the zero axis, and the long and short forces are stalemate to each other. It is expected that the medium-term trend of crude oil will remain unchanged. The short-term (1H) trend of crude oil rose alternately, with oil prices hitting a new high of 70.50. The moving average system relies on the upward trend of oil prices, and the short-term objective trend remains unchanged. The MACD indicators are intertwined at the high level of the zero axis, and the bulls have the advantage. In the early trading, oil prices fluctuated at a secondary rhythm with a narrow range, and it is expected that the crude oil trend will continue to rise during the day. Overall, in terms of today's operational ideas of crude oil, He Bosheng recommends that the main focus should be on the low-sinking back, and the rebound should be supplemented by the high altitude. The short-term focus should be on the 71.0-72.0 line resistance at the top, and the short-term focus should be on the 68.0-67.0 line support at the bottom.
This article is exclusively planned by gold crude oil analyst He Bosheng. Due to the delay in online push, the above content is personal advice. Because the online publication is timely and the suggestions in the article are for learning reference only, and the risks of operating based on this are at your own risk. No matter whether the views and strategies of the article are consistent with everyone's opinions, you can www.xm-forex.come to me to discuss and learn together! There is nothing difficult in the world, I am afraid of those who are interested. Investment itself carries risks, reminding everyone to identify the authoritative platform and the strong teacher. Fund safety is the first priority, secondly, consider operational risks, and finally how to make a profit.
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