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market analysis
The Fed's favored inflation indicator warms up, the US dollar index approaches the 100 mark
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: The inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve will warm up, and the US dollar index is close to the 100 mark." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On August 1, early trading in Asian market on Friday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 99.97. On Thursday, the US dollar index rose in the short term after the Fed's favorite inflation indicator unexpectedly rebounded, reaching the 100 integer mark for the first time in two months, and finally closed up 0.11% to 100.03, the sixth consecutive trading day and achieved its first monthly increase since 2025. U.S. Treasury yields rose and fell mixed, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields closed at 4.375%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yields closed at 3.963%. As the market risk aversion sentiment recovered while uncertainty remained before Trump's tariff limit, spot gold rebounded and returned to the $3,310 mark for a time, but narrowed its intraday gains after the release of PCE data, and finally closed up 0.46% to $3,290.24/ounce; spot silver continued to fall, eventually closing down 1.12% to $36.71/ounce. International crude oil stopped falling three consecutive times. WTI crude oil once approached the US dollar 68 mark and finally closed down 1.29% at $68.92 per barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed down 1.25% at $71.69 per barrel.
Analysis of major currencies
Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovered at $99.97. The dollar will record its first-month gains against major currencies on Thursday, supported by easing trade tensions and a U.S. economic recovery. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.16% to 99.949 points after rising nearly 1% in the previous trading day. The index recorded its first-month increase in 2025. There is conflict and friction between what the Fed sees and its decisions, and the actions many in the White House and the stock market want the Fed to take.If we give up hawkish tone www.xm-forex.completely, hawkish stances, hawkish press conferences, then the dollar is justified, and it does. But today, the dollar has hit the brakes again due to friction between the Fed and the White House. Technically, if the US dollar index closes above the 100.00 level, it will move towards the nearest resistance level, which is in the range of 100.40–100.55.
Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends
1) Analysis of gold market trends
On Friday, gold hovered around 3288.90. Investors need to pay attention to the impact of tariff policies, and in addition, they need to pay attention to the US non-farm employment report in July and the speeches of Federal Reserve officials. The performance of non-farm employment data will directly affect market expectations for the Fed's future policy. If the data is weak, it may reignite expectations of interest rate cuts, weaken the US dollar and boost gold prices; on the contrary, if the data is strong, it may further strengthen the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and put pressure on gold prices. However, regardless of the data results, tariffs and geopolitical uncertainties are expected to continue to support gold's safe-haven demand, and gold prices are expected to remain high in the short term.
2) Analysis of crude oil market trends
On Friday, crude oil trading was around 68.76. Oil prices fell on Thursday, with U.S. President Donald Trump’s August 1 tariff deadline looming, and investors are concerned about uncertainty around countries that have not yet reached a trade deal with the United States.
Forex market trading reminder on August 1, 2025
09:45 China's July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
10:00 National Development and Reform www.xm-forex.commission held a press conference
14:00 UK July Nationwide House Price Index Monthly Rate
15:50 France July Manufacturing PMI Final Value
15:55 Germany July Manufacturing PMI Final Value
16:00 Eurozone July Manufacturing PMI Final Value
16:30 UK July Manufacturing PMI Final Value
17 :00 Eurozone July CPI annual rate initial value
17:00 Eurozone July CPI monthly rate initial value
20:30 U.S. July unemployment rate
20:30 U.S. July seasonally adjusted non-farm employment population
20:30 U.S. July average hourly wage annual rate
20:30 U.S. July average hourly wage monthly rate
21:45 U.S. July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final value
22:00 U.S. July ISM Manufacturing PMI
22:00 U.S. July consumer confidence index final value
22:00 The expected end value of the one-year inflation rate in July
22:00 The monthly rate of construction expenditure in the United States in June
The next day, 01:00, the total number of oil drilling rigs in the week from the United States to August 1
The above content is about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: The inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve has recovered, and the US dollar index is close to the 100 mark". It is carefully www.xm-forex.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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