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US dollar rose to two-month high, focusing on non-farm data

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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex]: The US dollar rose to two-month high, focusing on non-agricultural data." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On the Asian session on Friday, the US dollar index fluctuated near the 100 mark, and traders will closely monitor the U.S. employment data released later on Friday. The U.S. economy is expected to add 110,000 new jobs in July, while the unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.1% to 4.2%. In addition, the average annualized annualized hourly wage rate in the United States is expected to rise to 3.8% from the previous value of 3.7%. This could put pressure on the dollar if the report shows results are lower than expected.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around the 100 mark, and the US dollar against major currencies will record its first-month increase on Thursday, supported by easing trade tensions and the recovery of the US economy. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.16% to 99.949 points after rising nearly 1% in the previous trading day. The index recorded its first-month increase in 2025. There is conflict and friction between what the Fed sees and its decisions, and the actions many in the White House and the stock market want the Fed to take. If we give up hawkish tone www.xm-forex.completely, hawkish stances, hawkish press conferences, then the dollar is justified, and it does. But today, the dollar has hit the brakes again due to friction between the Fed and the White House.

Euro: As of press time, the euro hovered around 1.1422, and the euro/dollar rebounded on Thursday after strong U.S. economic data proved the reason the Fed was reluctant to cut interest rates, as seen on Wednesday. Traders are FridayJuly non-farm employment data will be ready, and final data will be released for the ISM Manufacturing PMI and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index. Technically, the EUR/USD stopped falling around 1.1401, and buyers appeared at this level, with the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) facing the threat of being broken at 1.1361, if the bears break through the 1.1400 mark. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that sellers dominate but are resting after falling to 34.60; RSI rises to 34.70. However, the pair is expected to decline further. If the EUR/USD falls below 1.1400, the next test will be a 100-day SMA and 1.1300. Conversely, if the pair climbs to 1.1500, the 50-day SMA will be on standby at 1.1572.

GBP: As of press time, GBP hovers around 1.3208, GBP/USD fell again on Thursday, falling for the sixth consecutive trading day, with GBP (GBP) almost 3% since it approached its high of 1.3588 last week. The dollar (USD) has gained widespread buying in the market, with the pound dragged back to bearish territory as U.S. inflation data rebounded and the upcoming non-farm employment report (NFP). Technically, the sixth consecutive decline day made the GBP/USD collided with the 200-day index moving average (EMA) close to 1.3131. Price movements have firmly turned bearish after GBP/USD failed to launch a bullish climb to 1.3600, although new short entry will face challenges with the technical vibrator already in the oversold zone.

Summary of news from the foreign exchange market

1. The U.S. Federal Court of Appeal raised sharp questions, and most of Trump's tariffs face severe legal tests

The legality of US President Trump's large-scale imposition of global tariffs has been tested. A U.S. federal appeals court held a hearing on Thursday, and the next day, higher tariffs against many countries will take effect. A team of 11 judges took turns to question a senior U.S. Department of Justice official, focusing on the Trump administration's claim that the U.S. continued trade deficit constitutes a national emergency, allowing the president to bypass Congress and impose tariffs on many countries around the world. At the hearing, Brett Shumate, head of the Civil Division of the U.S. Department of Justice, said Trump's tariff policy was designed to deal with "the consequences of our expanding trade deficit" and allow the president to "pressure on other countries." He added that Trump believes the trade deficit has soared to a "breakthrough point."

2. Strategist: U.S. Treasury Department's increase in Treasury supply may pressure the Fed to increase purchases

MetlifeInvesShan Ahmed, strategist at tmentManagement, said in a report that the U.S. Treasury’s plan to issue more Treasury bills to fill the deficit could pressure the Fed to buy more short-term government bonds. Fed officials said one of the central bank's goals is to match its portfolio structure with the U.S. Treasury bond structure circulating in the market. Currently, the Federal Reserve's $4.2 trillion Treasury bond portfolio only contains $195 billion of Treasury bonds, accounting for about 5%. "The Treasury's increased use of Treasury bonds will further deviate from this goal," Ahmed wrote. "Based on previous assumptions about the size of an ideal portfolio, Metlife strategists said the Fed would need to purchase nearly $900 billion in Treasury bonds to increase its position to a level that matches the current 20.2%. If the Treasury Department increases the proportion of Treasury bond issuance to 25%, the Federal Reserve will need to purchase more than $1.3 trillion of Treasury bonds.

3. The market's response to the Bank of England's rate cut next week may be milder.

Morgan Stanley analyst Fabio Bassanin said in a report that if the Bank of England cuts interest rates by 25 basis points next week, investors' reaction may be relatively flat, because this move has long been widely expected by the market. “From the current valuation, we expect market responses to remain moderate as expectations still reflect the pace of rate cuts once a quarter.” Bassanin noted that the market may focus on voting differences in this decision and explanatory paragraphs in the minutes. The money market currently shows that there is an 82% chance of interest rate cuts at this Bank of England meeting.

4. Key U.S. inflation indicators rise while consumer spending is nearly stagnant.

The Fed prefers core inflation indicators to rise in June, reaching one of the fastest growth rates this year, while consumer spending has hardly increased, highlighting the factors that have led to policy makers’ differences on the direction of interest rates. Data released on Thursday showed that the "Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index" excluding food and energy prices rose 0.3% from May. It rose 2.8% year-on-year, reflecting the limited progress in suppressing inflation in the past year. Data showed inflation-adjusted consumer spending rebounded slightly in June, while it fell in May. These data show that the pulling role in the economy has caused differences in the direction of monetary policy. On the one hand, progress on inflation has basically stagnated, and central bank officials are worried that President Trump's tariffs will put greater upward pressure on prices. On the other hand, a shrinking consumer spending due to a weak job market may lead to an overall slowdown in the economy.

5. PCE rise reminds Fed observers that interest rate cuts depend on policy success

U.S. core personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE) inflation rose slightly in June, up 0.3% month-on-month, as many market participants expected. On an annual basis, PCE inflation accelerated to 2.6%, exceeding expectations of 2.5%.. U.S. consumer income also rebounded 0.3% in June, and the rise in wage pressure will further increase future inflation pressure. The U.S. non-farm employment data (NFP) will promise to end the trading week with a tight release on Friday's schedule. The importance of U.S. jobs and inflation data to the Fed has risen further as the week's decision to keep interest rates unchanged during another meeting period. The annualized core PCE inflation, a key inflation indicator for Fed interest rate policymakers, has remained above the Fed's 2% target range for nearly four and a half years.

Institutional View

1. UBS analyst: The Swiss franc is expected to turn down against the euro

UBS Global Wealth Management analyst said in a report that the Swiss franc may fall against the euro as investors seek more favorable returns in the euro zone and the improvement in growth prospects next year. They said the ECB was cautious about rate cuts at its meeting last week, and the strength of the Swiss franc will eventually be suppressed by the spreads being favorable to the euro. "At the same time, there is little news about the possible trade deal between the United States and Switzerland, but any progress means a lot to the Swiss franc." UBS expects the euro to reach 0.94 by the Swiss franc by the Swiss franc by the end of the year.

2. UBS: Pound pound is expected to weaken against the Japanese yen

UBS Global Wealth Management analysts said in a report that the pound pound appears to weaken against the Japanese yen. "With the passage of the Japanese Senate election and the conclusion of the US-Japan trade agreement, the selling pressure of the yen should be further weakened." For the pound, the market's expectations for a UK interest rate cut are relatively conservative. They said the market could further price cuts, especially after weaker than expected data, with the BoE having a more radical tendency toward policy easing. UBS recommends shorting the pound against the yen, with a target of 192.5 and a stop loss of 200.5.

3. UBS: The current rise in the US dollar may be short-term

Analysts at UBS Global Wealth Management said in a report that the current rise in the US dollar is likely to be caused by short-term position adjustments, and does not mean that its recent weakening trend has reversed. They pointed out that investors may have closed their previously short positions in the U.S. dollar ahead of the Fed meeting on Wednesday, which the Fed kept interest rates unchanged. "Once the Fed sends a signal that it is preparing to restart interest rate cuts in the www.xm-forex.coming months, the weak trend of the dollar should reappear." This view is based on expectations that U.S. economic growth will slow down further in the second half of the year, and will slow down www.xm-forex.compared to the first half of the year. UBS expects the euro to rise to 1.20 against the dollar later this year.

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CATEGORIES

News

market news

US dollar rose to two-month high, focusing on non-farm data

Analysis of major currencies

1. The U.S. Federal Court of Appeal raised sharp questions, and most of Trump's tariffs face severe legal tests

2. Strategist: U.S. Treasury Department's increase in Treasury supply may pressure the Fed to increase purchases

3. The market's response to the Bank of England's rate cut next week may be milder.

4. Key U.S. inflation indicators rise while consumer spending is nearly stagnant.

5. PCE rise reminds Fed observers that interest rate cuts depend on policy success

Institutional View

1. UBS analyst: The Swiss franc is expected to turn down against the euro

2. UBS: Pound pound is expected to weaken against the Japanese yen

3. UBS: The current rise in the US dollar may be short-term

Related News

Trusted by over 15 Million Traders

The Most Awarded Brokerfor a Reason

Easy Access to 1,400+ Global Assets

XM Forex Trading Platform

CATEGORIES

News

market news

US dollar rose to two-month high, focusing on non-farm data

Analysis of major currencies

1. The U.S. Federal Court of Appeal raised sharp questions, and most of Trump's tariffs face severe legal tests

2. Strategist: U.S. Treasury Department's increase in Treasury supply may pressure the Fed to increase purchases

3. The market's response to the Bank of England's rate cut next week may be milder.

4. Key U.S. inflation indicators rise while consumer spending is nearly stagnant.

5. PCE rise reminds Fed observers that interest rate cuts depend on policy success

Institutional View

1. UBS analyst: The Swiss franc is expected to turn down against the euro

2. UBS: Pound pound is expected to weaken against the Japanese yen

3. UBS: The current rise in the US dollar may be short-term

Related News

The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason